A Hybrid Intelligent Early Warning System for Predicting Economic Crises: The Case of China

This paper combines artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy optimization and time-series econometric models in one unified framework to form a hybrid intelligent early warning system (EWS) for predicting economic crises. Using quarterly data on 12 macroeconomic and financial variables for the Chinese economy during 1999 and 2008, the paper finds that the hybrid model possesses strong predictive power and the likelihood of economic crises in China during 2009 and 2010 remains high.Computational intelligence; artificial neural networks; fuzzy optimization; early warning system; economic crises

Parallel experimental study of a novel super-thin thermal absorber based photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) system against conventional photovoltaic (PV) system

Photovoltaic (PV) semiconductor degrades in performance due to temperature rise. A super thin-conductive thermal absorber is therefore developed to regulate the PV working temperature by retrofitting the existing PV panel into the photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) panel. This article presented the parallel comparative investigation of the two different systems through both laboratory and field experiments. The laboratory evaluation consisted of one PV panel and one PV/T panel respectively while the overall field system involved 15 stand-alone PV panels and 15 retrofitted PV/T panels. The laboratory testing results demonstrated the PV/T panel could achieve the electrical efficiency of about 16.8% (relatively 5% improvement comparing with the stand-alone PV panel), and yield an extra amount of heat with thermal efficiency of nearly 65%. The field testing results indicated that the hybrid PV/T panel could enhance the electrical return of PV panels by nearly 3.5%, and increase the overall energy output by nearly 324.3%. Further opportunities and challenges were then discussed from aspects of different PV/T stakeholders to accelerate the development. It is expected that such technology could become a significant solution to yield more electricity, offset heating load freely and reduce carbon footprint in contemporary energy environment

Theoretical investigation of the thermal performance of a novel solar loop-heat-pipe façade-based heat pump water heating system

The aim of the paper was to present a dedicated theoretical investigation into the thermal performance of a novel solar loop-heat-pipe façade based heat pump water heating system. This involved thermo-fluid analyses, computer numerical model development, the model running up, modelling result analyses and conclusion. An energy balance network was established on each part and the whole range of the system to address the associated energy conversion and transfer processes. On basis of this, a computer numerical model was developed and run up to predict the thermal performance of such a system at different system configurations, layouts and operational conditions. It was suggested that the loop heat pipes could be filled with either water, R134a, R22 or R600a; of which R600a is the favourite working fluid owing to its relatively larger heat transfer capacity and positive pressure in operation. Variations in the system configuration, i.e., glazing covers, heat exchangers, would lead to identifiable differences in the thermal performance of the system, represented by the thermal efficiency and COP. Furthermore, impact of the external operational parameters, i.e., solar radiation and ambient air temperature, to the system's thermal performance was also investigated. The research was based on an innovative loop-heat-pipe façade and came up with useful results reflecting the thermal performance of the combined system between the façade and heat pump. This would help promote development and market penetration of such an innovative solar heating technology, and thus contribute to achieving the global targets in energy saving and carbon emission reduction

A Hybrid Intelligent Early Warning System for Predicting Economic Crises: The Case of China

This paper combines artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy optimization and time-series econometric models in one unified framework to form a hybrid intelligent early warning system (EWS) for predicting economic crises. Using quarterly data on 12 macroeconomic and financial variables for the Chinese economy during 1999 and 2008, the paper finds that the hybrid model possesses strong predictive power and the likelihood of economic crises in China during 2009 and 2010 remains high

Design, fabrication and experimental study of a novel loop-heat-pipe based solar thermal facade water heating system

This paper investigated a novel loop-heat-pipe based solar thermal facade heat-pump system for hot water from concept design, prototype fabrication and experimental test. Given the specific testing conditions, the solar thermal efficiency of the facade module achieved nearly 0.71 in average and the mean system's COP was about 5.0. It is expected that such novel LHP based solar thermal facade technology would further contributed to the development of the renewable (solar) driven heating/hot water service and therefore lead to significant environmental benefits

Non-clausal multi-ary alpha-generalized resolution calculus for a finite lattice-valued logic

Due to the need of the logical foundation for uncertain information processing, development of efficient automated reasoning system based on non-classical logics is always an active research area. The present paper focuses on the resolution-based automated reasoning theory in a many-valued logic with truth-values defined in a lattice-ordered many-valued algebraic structure - lattice implication algebras (LIA). Specifically, as a continuation and extension of the established work on binary resolution at a certain truth-value level α (called α-resolution), a non-clausal multi-ary α-generalized resolution calculus is introduced for a lattice-valued propositional logic LP(X) based on LIA, which is essentially a non-clausal generalized resolution avoiding reduction to normal clausal form. The new resolution calculus in LP(X) is then proved to be sound and complete. The concepts and theoretical results are further extended and established in the corresponding lattice-valued first-order logic LF(X) based on LIA